Typhoon Conson gains more strength as it moves toward Hainan-Gulf of Tonkin now a Category 1

Typhoon Conson (Basyang/03W)

• 17.7N 109.6E
• moving westward @17 kph towards Gulf of Tonkin and Hainan

Prognosis:

WDPN31 PGTW 160300

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (CONSON)
WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON 03W (CONSON) HAS MAINTAINED A WESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS AND HAS INTENSIFIED TO 75 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 152359Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A
160027Z 85 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A BANDING EYE FEATURE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING
OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL OVER LUZON HAVE CONTINUED TO AID IN THE WEAKENING OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TYPHOON 03W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC, BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY
WEST-NORHTWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING
RIDGE REORIENTS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DUE TO THE MORE ZONAL EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TY CONSON IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO 80 KNOTS AS IT CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE VWS
(20 KNOTS) AND HIGH SST VALUES. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 LAND
INTERACTION SHOULD DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 IN
THE VICINIITY OF HANOI, VIETNAM AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE AFFECTS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN VIETNAM COAST. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS AND
GFDN WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MODEL
ERRORS AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WHICH HAVE CONTINUED TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST.//
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