Tropical Disturbance 98w slowly weakens as it moves Southwestward slowly......30 chances of becoming a TC in the next 24-48 hours

Tropical Disturbance 98w

• 15.3N 122.8E

• 115 nm east-northeast of Manila, Philippines

• maximum sustained surfaced winds: 10-15 knots

• minimum sea level pressure: 1008 mb

Discussion:

               AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.3N 122.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 162334Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING. AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE AT 161339Z SHOWED A 10-15
KNOT CIRCULATION AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM RPLB (SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF LLCC) INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 05 KNOTS WITH SLP
NEAR 1009 MB. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WITH
WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL NEAR 25.2N 134.3E.
THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND
WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE LACK OF
ORGANIZATION AND PROXIMITY TO LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

* Watch out for the Forecast Analysis of the said disturbance this night.