Tropical Disturbance 98w (Pre-Caloy)
- 15.0N 122.1E
- moving west-southwest @ 04 kph
- Maximum winds: 45 kph
- Gustiness winds: 65 kph
- Rain rate near the center: 200 mm (heavy)
- Minimum sea level pressure: 1006 mb
- Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
- Projected Path: Northern quezon-Nueva Ecija area
WTPN21 PGTW 180330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 122.6E TO 15.2N 118.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 122.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
122.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARD THE COAST OF LUZON. A RECENT AMSU
CROSS-SECTION DEPICTS A 1C WARM ANOMALY EVIDENT IN THE MID-
LEVELS. A 172238Z TRMM 85H IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE PROXIMITY TO LAND MAY HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND POSITION OVER WATER MAY
ALLOW FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190330Z.//
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