Tropical Disturbnace 98w now consolidating as it remains quasi-stationary..65-75% chances of becoming the 3rd cyclone in the next 24 hours

Tropical Disturbance 98w

• 15.3N 122.2E
• Maximum winds: 35 kph
• Gustiness winds: 55 kph
• Minimum sea level pressure: 1007 mb
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance
• Movement: Quasi-Stationary
• Projected area: Aurora-Northern Quezon area
• Status: Fair nearly to Good before it will raised in to an active cyclone

Joint-Typhoon Warning Center Discussion:

      THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
122.8E, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
122.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION WITH IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
UNDER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A
TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE DEEPENING
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

Forecast Analysis and Observation:

        The chances of becoming an active Tropical Depression has been
raised to 65-70%. Which means tropical cyclone formation is possible within
the next 18-24 hours. But as of now, the disturbance remains quasi-stationary
or not moving all the time making Northern Quezon and Isabela area threaten.
Bot still the convection of clouds are loosely disorganizing more over found in
Northern,Central, Eastern and Bicol region.