NOAA forecasts Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible along the Western North Pacific region

There is a probability that Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible along the side near Eastern Visayas, Eastern Luzon and South China Sea based on the latest NOAA weather guidance model.The areas of weak vertical wind shear increase the threat of Tropical Disturbance development along the said area. The NOAA forecasts also above average rainfall including here in the Philippines. The enhanced favor phase of the MJO and developing La Niña are some of the factors that could enhance above rainfall not only here in our country but also in India and nearby country of Southeast Asia region. While here in the Philippines, Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone remains the dominant weather disturbance affecting the whole country.

Tropical Disturbance 91W consolidating more strength near Southeast Vietnam.....TCF chances is at 60-70% ( fair)

Tropical Disturbance 91w

• Strong Low Pressure Area
• 10.9N 112.8E
• moving West @ 17 kph
  
• 360 NM East of Ho Chi Minh City, Southern Vietnam
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 22 kph
• Gustiness Winds: 32 kph
• Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007 MB
• Projected Path: towards Southern Vietnam

Joint-Typhoon Warning Center Discussion:

 THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
112.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.8E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. A 241411Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT A PORTION OF THE
NARROW TROUGH HAS FORMED INTO A WEAK, YET SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241815Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
CURVED INFLOW AND WEAK BANDING WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
STILL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, SIGNALING THE PRESENCE OF EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS HAS
STARTED TO RELAX SOME OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND IS DOWN TO 15-25
KNOTS. UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DA NANG AND HO CHI MINH CITY,
VIETNAM SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY WINDS (5-30 KNOTS) THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM IS FORMING AND STARTING TO
DRIFT WESTWARD, BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR HAVE DECREASED.
FINALLY, UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS ALSO INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK LLCC AND DECREASING VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

Typhoon Chanthu now on its second landfall....heavy rainfalls expected along the affected area

Typhoon Chanthu (04W)

• 21.5N 100.4E
• moving west-northwestward @ 20 kph
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 139 kph
• Gustiness Winds: 167 kph
• Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974 mb
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
• Projected Path: Guangxi Province

Forecast Analysis:
12 hours 22.4N 108.8E 93 kph-120 kph Tropical Storm
24 hours 23.1N 107.5E 56 kph-56 kph Tropical Depression
36 hours 23.8N 106.1E 37 kph-56 kph Tropical Depression

Typhoon Chanthu has made its second landfall late this afternoon at the
province of Wuchuan, China peaking the maximum sustained winds of
120 kph (Category 1). It is expected to weak and become Tropical Storm
within the next 12 hours while moving inland China. It is anticipated
also to dissipate tomorrow afternoon having the strength of Tropical
Depression.Heavy rainfalls is started to fall and thunderstorms expected
along the affected area.

TropicalStorm Chanchu remains threatening Wstern Guandong

Tropical Storm Chanchu

• 18.9N 112.8E
• Distance: 215 nm South-Southwest of Hong Kong
• moving North-Northwestward @ 11 kph
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 83 kph
• Gustiness Winds: 102 kph
• Projected area: Hainan-Western Guandong
• Maximum Significant Wave Height: 16 feet
• Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980 mb
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Strong Tropical Storm

Forecast Analysis:

12 hours 20.0N 111.9E 93 kph-120 kph Tropical Storm
24 hours 21.1N 111.0E 102 kph-130 kph Strong Tropical Storm
36 hours 22.2N 109.9E 74 kph-93 kph Minimal Tropical Storm
48 hours 23.0N 108.8E 46 kph-65 kph Tropical Depression
72 hours 23.7N 107.1E 28 kph-46 kph Dissipating/LPA

Tropical Storm Chanthu

• 18.3N 133.0E
• moving west @ 19 kph
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 kph
• Gustiness Winds: 100 kph
• Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989 mb
• Projected Path: Hainan-Western Guandong Province
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm

Forecasts Analysis:

The following are projected forecasts for Tropical Storm Chanthu

12 hours 19.3N 112.2E 111 kph-139 kph Tropical Storm
24 hours 20.4N 111.3E 120 kph-148 kph Category 1
36 hours 21.7N 110.2E 93 kph-120 kph Tropical Storm
48 hours 22.5N 109.3E 65 kph-83 kph Tropical Storm
72 hours 23.5N 107.6E 46 kph- 65 kph Tropical Depression

Tropical Storm Chanthu is expected to intensify reaching Category 1
within the next 12-24 hours as it will make it's final landfall over
Western Guandong Thursday morning.Proper precautions is necessary along the projected area.

Tropical Storm Chanthu remains threatening Southern China

FORECASTS ANALYSIS:

Based on the latest numerical guidance model, Minimal Tropical Storm Chanthu remains tracking WNW-NNW as it anticipated to approach Southern China (Hong Kong, Guandong Province & Macau). The following are projected outlooks for Tropical Storm Chanthu:

12 hours 18.9N 114.2E 74 kph-93 kph Tropical Storm
24 hours 20.2N 113.4E 83 kph-102 kph Tropical Storm
36 hours 21.5N 112.5E 83 kph- 102 kph Tropical Storm
48 hours 22.8N 111.6E 65 kph- 83 kph Tropical Storm
72 hours 24.1N 110.3E 45 kph-65 kph Tropical Depression (Dissipating)

TS Chanthu is expected to remains it's strength within the next 1-2 days peaking the wind speed of 102 kph. Moderate to heavy rainfall with thunderstorm is expected along the affected area as second landfall is anticipated over the western part of Hong Kong.

Tropical Storm Chanthu continues to intensify as it approaching Southern China

Tropical Storm Chanthu

• 17.6N 115.1E
• moving NNW @ 15 kph
• Projected Path: Southern China
• Maximum Wind Speed: 65 kph
• Gustiness Wind Speed: 85 kph
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
• Maximum Sea Level Pressure: 997 mb

* More weather updates tonight regarding about the TS "Chanthu"

Tropical Depression 04W continues to organize as it forecasts to intensifiy tonight

Tropical Depression 04W (Caloy/98W)

• 15.8N 166.5E
• moving Northwest@20 kph
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 55 kph
• Gustiness Winds: 75 kph
• Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009 mb
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Warning Center: Tropical Depression
• Projected Path: Southern China (Guandong Province, Hong Kong & Macau)

Cyclone Analysis and Observation

• 12 hours 16.0N 116.0E 65 kph-85 kph Tropical Storm
• 24 hours 17.0N 115.1E 75 kph-95 kph Tropical Storm
• 36 hours 17.9N 114.3E 85 kph-102 kph Tropical Storm
• 48 hours 19.1N 113.6E 102 kph-130 kph Tropical Storm

* All data and information are based on JTWC forecast outlook.

More of the numerical guidance model shows the depression is tracking WNW-NW direction at this moment.Possible intensification is possible this night as the Tropical Depression 04W is better organized over the South China Sea. Second landfall is expected along the Southern China which proper precautions is necessary as this
will bring heavy rains along the affected area. It is expected late Thursday or early Monday overland across China.

Tropical Depression 04W tracks WNW-NW direction issued by ECMWF

The latest model issued by ECMWF (European Center Medium-Weather Forecast) runs the
Tropical Cyclone 04W in WNW-NW direction heading Southern China. The second landfall is
anticipated over the western part of Hong Kong. More information about the said disurbance will be published as the data will be study from now.

More data and details will be discussed.....Watch out!!!!

Tropical Depression 04W (Caloy) now over South China Sea...intensification is possible within the next 12-24 hours as it moves away from the country

Tropical Depression 04W ( Caloy/98W)

• 15.4N 117.2E
• moving west @22 kph
• Maximum Wind Speed: 45 kph
• Gustiness Wind Speed: 65 kph
• Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004 mb
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
• Projected Path: Towards south China Sea heading Southern China

Disturbance Analysis:

Tropical Depression was spotted over the South China Sea at this moment.
It weakens this morning as it passes the Central Luzon's terrain last
night. As of this moment, intensification is possible within the next
12-24 hours reaching the tropical strength.It is anticipated to have
the wind speed of 65 kph-100 kph as it reorganizes over the South China
Sea. It is expected to turn west-northwest or northwest direction heading
Southern China including Hong Kong and Macau.Projected second landfall is
expected by early Thursday morning in the western part near Hong Kong.

While here in the Philippines, strong ITCZ rmains over the area of
Southern Luzon,Bicol, Mindoro, Visayas and rest of Mindanao. Scaterred
to widespread rains is expected along the affected the area while the
latest satellite shows an incoming cluster of thunderstorms and rains
along the eastern and southern part of Mindanao.

Tropical Depression 98w made landfall near Northern Quezon.....intensification is possible after passing Central Luzon or in South China Sea

Tropical Disturbance 98w (Pre-Caloy/04w)

• 15.6N 121.2E
• moving west-northwest@13 kph
• Maximum winds: 55 kph
• Gustiness winds: 75 kph
• Minimum sea level pressure: 1004 mb
• Rain rate near the center: 200 mm (heavy)
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
• Projected area: Tarlac-Pangasinan area

Forecast Analysis and Observation

Based on the latest satellite, Tropical Depression 04w/98w has made it's early landfall
today near the town of Northern Quezon. It is anticipated to landfall tonight and accelerated
over the 6 hours and approaching to Pangasinan. The said depression might bring light to
light to heavy rains across the Central and Northern Luzon until tomorrow.

Analysis:

More weather agency's projected Tropical Depression to track WNW direction within the
next 12-24 hours. It is expected that this TD will be over the Pangasinan tomorrow morning
that will serves an exit point. When the said disturbance will be over the South China Sea,
it will gain/consolidates more strength reaching Tropical Storm. The Tropical Depression
is expected to track Southern China or near Hong Kong after 2 0r 3 days from now and then
dissipate over the said area.

Strong ITCZ is expected along the area of Southern Luzon, Bicol, rest of Visayas and
Mindanao that might bring heavy rains.

Tropical Depression 98w (Pre-Caloy)

Tropical Disturbance 98w (Pre-Caloy)

• 15.0N 122.1E
• moving west-southwest @ 04 kph
• Maximum winds: 45 kph
• Gustiness winds: 65 kph
• Rain rate near the center: 200 mm (heavy)
• Minimum sea level pressure: 1006 mb
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
• Projected Path: Northern quezon-Nueva Ecija area
  

Joint Typhoon Warning Center Discussion:

WTPN21 PGTW 180330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 122.6E TO 15.2N 118.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 122.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
122.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARD THE COAST OF LUZON. A RECENT AMSU
CROSS-SECTION DEPICTS A 1C WARM ANOMALY EVIDENT IN THE MID-
LEVELS. A 172238Z TRMM 85H IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE PROXIMITY TO LAND MAY HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND POSITION OVER WATER MAY
ALLOW FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190330Z.//
NNNN

Tropical Disturbnace 98w now consolidating as it remains quasi-stationary..65-75% chances of becoming the 3rd cyclone in the next 24 hours

Tropical Disturbance 98w

• 15.3N 122.2E
• Maximum winds: 35 kph
• Gustiness winds: 55 kph
• Minimum sea level pressure: 1007 mb
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance
• Movement: Quasi-Stationary
• Projected area: Aurora-Northern Quezon area
• Status: Fair nearly to Good before it will raised in to an active cyclone

Joint-Typhoon Warning Center Discussion:

      THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
122.8E, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
122.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION WITH IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
UNDER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A
TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE DEEPENING
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

Forecast Analysis and Observation:

        The chances of becoming an active Tropical Depression has been
raised to 65-70%. Which means tropical cyclone formation is possible within
the next 18-24 hours. But as of now, the disturbance remains quasi-stationary
or not moving all the time making Northern Quezon and Isabela area threaten.
Bot still the convection of clouds are loosely disorganizing more over found in
Northern,Central, Eastern and Bicol region.

Japan Meteorological Agency now raised Tropical Disturbance 98w now a Tropical Depression....but 60% chances of becoming a TC in the next 24-48 hours

Tropical Disturbance 98w

• 15.7N 122.6E
• moving northwest @ 4 kph towards Aurora-Isabela area
  
• Maximum sustained winds: 35 kph near the center
• Gustiness winds: 55 kph
• Minimum sea level pressure: 1008 mb
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance
• Japan Meteorological Agency: Tropical Depression

Tropical Analysis and Observation:

Based on the latest satellite, the convective cluster of clouds are now disorganized more over found in Bicol Region and Northern and Central Luzon. The current direction has changed it's movement from south-southwesward to northwest. Even though that Japan MeteorologicalAgency raised this in to a Tropical Depression, there would be a big tendency that it become the third cyclone in the country.

Tropical Disturbance 98w slowly weakens as it moves Southwestward slowly......30 chances of becoming a TC in the next 24-48 hours

Tropical Disturbance 98w

• 15.3N 122.8E

• 115 nm east-northeast of Manila, Philippines

• maximum sustained surfaced winds: 10-15 knots

• minimum sea level pressure: 1008 mb

Discussion:

               AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.3N 122.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 162334Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING. AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE AT 161339Z SHOWED A 10-15
KNOT CIRCULATION AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM RPLB (SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF LLCC) INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 05 KNOTS WITH SLP
NEAR 1009 MB. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WITH
WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL NEAR 25.2N 134.3E.
THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND
WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE LACK OF
ORGANIZATION AND PROXIMITY TO LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

* Watch out for the Forecast Analysis of the said disturbance this night.

New developing Tropical Disturbance 98w consolidating as drifts southward......50% chances of Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Disturbance 98w

• 16.0N 123.6E
• spotted off Philppine Sea or near east of Aurora
• 170 km. east of Casiguran, Aurora
• current maximum winds: 25 kph
• current sea level pressure: 1010 mb

Alternate Forecast Outlook:

If the system will gains more strength, there would be a possibility that it will become a weak Tropical Depression but due to near land environment, the chances of becoming a strong cyclone is low. As of now, it is drifting southward towards Central Luzon but there is big possibility that it will change it's direction in the next few hours.

Weather Outlook in the Philippines:

Rains are expected along the area of Eastern Luzon especially Aurora-Isabela area, Northern Quezon, Polilio Island and Catanduanes.

Typhoon Conson gains more strength as it moves toward Hainan-Gulf of Tonkin now a Category 1

Typhoon Conson (Basyang/03W)

• 17.7N 109.6E
• moving westward @17 kph towards Gulf of Tonkin and Hainan

Prognosis:

WDPN31 PGTW 160300

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (CONSON)
WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON 03W (CONSON) HAS MAINTAINED A WESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS AND HAS INTENSIFIED TO 75 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 152359Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A
160027Z 85 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A BANDING EYE FEATURE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING
OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL OVER LUZON HAVE CONTINUED TO AID IN THE WEAKENING OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TYPHOON 03W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC, BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY
WEST-NORHTWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING
RIDGE REORIENTS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DUE TO THE MORE ZONAL EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TY CONSON IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO 80 KNOTS AS IT CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE VWS
(20 KNOTS) AND HIGH SST VALUES. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 LAND
INTERACTION SHOULD DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 IN
THE VICINIITY OF HANOI, VIETNAM AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE AFFECTS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN VIETNAM COAST. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS AND
GFDN WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MODEL
ERRORS AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WHICH HAVE CONTINUED TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST.//
NNNN