Typhoon Mindulle now on it's landfall in Northern Vietnam...96w develops ...Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential is at 25%-35%

Typhoon Mindulle

• 18.6N 106.2E
• 100 km ESE of Northern Vietnam's Coast
  
• maximum sustained winds: 120 kph
• gustiness winds: 150 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 974 MB
• currently moving WNW at 20 kph
• tracking towards Northern Vietnam

Typhoon Mindulle is expected have it's landfall today and pass the mountain terrain of Northern Vietnam. It is expected to maintain it's track WNW direction and shall be over the Northern Vietnam and Laos border tomorrow morning, rapidly lossing its strength. Complete dissipation is anticipated tomorrow evening.

Tropical Disturbance 96w

• 14.6N 132.1E
• 905 km ENE of Bicol region
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph
• currently not moving/quasi-stationary
• minimum sea level pressure: 1010 MB
  

Tropical Storm Mindulle gains more strength as it nears the Northern Coast of Vietnam and Hainan

Tropical Storm Mindulle

• 16.5N 108.9E
• 130 km ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
• maximum sustained winds: 75 kph
• gustiness winds: 95 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 993 MB
• currently moving WNW at 20 kph
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
• heading towards Hainan-Gulf of Tonkin-Northern Vietnam area

Tropical Depression 06w now moving westward...heading Hainan-Gulf of Tonkin-Northern Vietnam area

Tropical Depression 06W

• 16.0N 114.2E
• 345 nm South of Hong Kong
• presenty moving westward @ 19 kph
• heading towards Hainan-Gulf of Tonkin area
• maximum sustained winds: 56 kph
• gustiness winds: 74 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 1004 MB
  

Forecast Analysis for Tropical Disturbance 94W

12 hours 16.2N 112.6E 65 kph-83 kph Tropical Storm
24 hours 16.9N 111.0E 74 kph-93 kph Tropical Storm
36 hours 17.8N 109.5E 83 kph-102 kph Tropical Storm
48 hours 18.9N 107.9E 74 kph-93 kph Tropical Storm
72 hours 20.0N 106.3E 65 kph-83 kph Tropical Storm
96 hours 20.2N 104.9E 56 kph-74 kph Tropical Depression
120 hours 19.7N 103.4E 37 kph-56 kph LPA (Dissipating)

* Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance 94w now subject for Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert....heading Hainan-Southern China area

Tropical Disturbance 94W/Pre-06W

• 16.1N 116.8E
• 400 nm South- SouthEast of Hong Kong
• maximum sustained winds: 35 kph (19 knots)
• gustiness winds: 43 kph (23 knots)
• minimum sea level pressure: 1005 MB
• projected path: Hainan-Southern China area
• currently moving west @ 15 kph (08 knots)

Cyclone Analysis and Observation

Tropical Disturbance 94w has already exit in the Philippine Area of Reponsibility, which means no possible threat at this moment to our country. Latest weather bulletin issued by Joint Typhoon Warning Center raised the system (94w) in to an active Tropical Cyclone. The agency issued Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert this morning and possible intensification might be anticipated. Tropical Disturbance had already raise by Japan Meteorological Agency in to a Tropical Depression with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 MB. The 2-3 day long range forecasts track this system in to W-WNW direction heading Hainan-Southern China area. The latest imagery shows deepen convection is found along the western periphery of the Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC). More weather updates and bulletin will be issue once this system will be formally raise by the other agency in to a fully-blown cyclone.

Tropical Disturbance 94w might become a cyclone within the next 6-12 hours...95w dissipated

Tropical Disturbance 94W

Weather Agency Bulletin

• Japan Meteorological Agency-Tropical Depression

Latest Information

• 15.9N 117.4E
• 210 nm North-Northwest of Manila, Philippines
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph (15 knots)
  
• gustiness winds: 37 kph (20 knots)
• minimum sea level pressure: 1007 mb
• moving west @ 20 kph towards South China Sea

The latest satellite reveals that deep convection of the Tropical Disturbance 94W is found along the western periphery of the of the LLCC (Low-Level Circulation Center). The said disturbance is expected to become an active cyclone within the next 6-12 hours as it moves to South China Sea or near Hainan. Numerical weather guidance models show the development of this disturbance but if this would be, it might just pack the wind speed of Minimal-Strong Tropical Depression based also to this current windspeed and the shear that might limit it's intensity.

While Tropical Disturbance 95w has already dissipated.

Tropical Disturbance 94w now in South China Sea...expected to reorganize and gains more strength...95w/LPA develops

Tropical Disturbance 94w

• 19.3N 120.2E
• 290 nm North of Manila, Philippines
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph (15 knots)
• gustiness winds: 37 kph (20 knots)
• minimum sea level pressure: 1008 MB
• moving west @ 15 kph heading South China Sea embedded along the Inter- Tropical Convergence Zone
  

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Tropical Disturbance 95w

• 11.8N 131.7E
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph (15 knots)
  
• gustiness winds: 37 kph (20 knots)
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1010 MB
• located in East of Eastern Visayas embedded along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone

Tropical Disturbance 94w consolidates strength as it moves toward South China Sea....Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential is at 65%-85%

Tropical Disturbance 94w

• 19.1N 119.8E
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph
• gustiness winds: 37 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 1008 MB
• 290 nm North of Manila, Philippines

Tropical Disturbance 94w has persisted and tracked to pass at Babuyan Island, over the Northern Luzon Strait today. Latest satellite imagery shows the system is moving under a region of increasing diffluence associated with the southwest side of the subtropical ridge which is forecast to reorganize after the passing area and consolidates more strength. Based also to the latest numerical weather guidance models issue, there is a big possibility that this will become an active cyclone in the next 12-36 hours. More datas justify the possible formation over the South China Sea as ECMWF (European Center MediumWeather Forecasts) runs this system in to NW-WNW direction towards East of Hainan and Southern China. The said system is embedded along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone which greatly affect most part of the archipelago. Tropical Disturbance 94w is projected to dump rains as it gains strength associated with thunderstorms across Northern Luzon.