Typhoon Megi now entered PAR, rapidly intensification within the next 24 hours is expected as it moves toward Northen Luzon

Typhoon Megi (Juan/15W)

• 17.0N 133.7E
• 1444.56 km. East of Manila
• currently moving northwestward @ 28 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 176 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 213 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 952 MB
  
• maximum sea wave height: 27 feet
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
  
• heading towards Philippine Sea

Typhoon Megi rapidly gaining more strength as it moves WNW within the next 12 hours and becoming a Category 3 system (195 kph). It shall maintain it's present track within the next 24 hours as a Category 4 system (222 kph-241 kph) while resuming it's track to westward direction starting on October 17, Sunday. Latest numerical weather guidance models support the possible tracking of WSW direction tomorrow as a Super Typhoon/Category 4 system with a maximum sustaine winds of 250 kph and gustiness winds of 306 kph while approaching the coast of Extreme Northern Luzon specifically Northern Cagayan early evening of Monday. It is anticipated to transverse the Northern Luzon (Cagayan-Apayao area on Tuesday while moving 24 kph as a Category 1 system (148 kph) and is expected to be over the coast of ESE of Laoag, Ilocos Norte. Typhoon Megi is expected to lose it's strength due to mountaineous terrain where the system is crossing. It shall be over the South China Sea on October 19, while re-organizing and consolidating more strength with a project maximum sustained winds of 158 kph while heading WNW-NW ward in the direction of Hainan Island, China and rapidly gaining more strength.

As of this moment, proper precautionary measures must be implemented along the residents and visitors along Luzon especially Northern and Eastern coastline of Luzon down to Central Luzon.

Typhoon Megi rapidly gaining more strength as it moves toward the Philippine Area of Responsibility tonight

Typhoon Megi (15W)

• 13.5N 137.7E
• 324.1 km. North of Yap
• currently moving west-northwestward @ 11 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 148 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 185 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure:
• maximum sea wave height: 22 feet
  
• heading towards Philippine Sea
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1

Typhoon Megi has rapidly undergone intensification during the past six hours and is expected to consolidates more strength. Numerical weather guidance model supports the possible intensification within the next 12 hours as a Category 2 system (167 kph>) while moving in WNW direction heading the Central Philippine Sea. It shall maintain it's track while accelerating moving 24 kph starting tomorrow October 16 as a Super Typhoon (Category 4) packing the maximum sustained winds of 213 kph. It shall resume it's track to westward direction while maintaining it's strength as it approaches the coasts of Southern Cagayan-Isabela-Northern Aurora area peaking the maximum strength of 232 kph. It is anticipated to transverse the Extreme Central Northern Luzon (Kalinga-Benguet area) on October 18 and shall be on the coast of La Union-Lingayen area on October 19 as a Typhoon with the strength of 158 kph.

Tropical Disturbance 91W

• 10.5N 131.2E
• 5004.04 km. Northwest of Palau
• maximum sustained winds: 22 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 33 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 1007 MB
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance

* Possible absorption of this disturbance as this system will be merge to the strong system north of it, Typhoon Megi.

Tropical Storm Megi rapidly gaining more strength as this will forecasts to absorb 91W and become Category 1 system today

Tropical Storm Megi (15W)

• 11.6N 140.7E
• 361.41 km. Northeast of Yap
• currently moving westward @ 7 kph
  
• maximum sustained winds:93 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 121 kph
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Strong Tropical Storm
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1002 MB
  
• maximum sea wave height: 12 feet
  
• heading towards Northern Caroline Islands-Philippine Sea

Tropical Storm Megi (15W) is expected to become as one of the strongest cyclone in the Western Pacific region based on the latest intensity and model issued by the different weather websites and agency's. One factor of the intensification is the possible absorption of TS Megi to the other disturbance located in the Philippine Sea (Tropical Disturbance 91W). The following below are the extended forecasts for Tropical Disturbance 91W:

Tropical Storm Megi is expected to become as a Category 1 this afternoon with a maximum sustained winds of 120 kph-139 kph while moving WNW-NW direction heading the Northern Caroline area. It shall maintain it's WNW to NW direction as it forecasts to move 24 kph on October15-16, 2010 as a Category 3 system (195 kph-204 kph). It is anticipated to resume it's track to NW-Westward direction as a powerful super typhoon on October 17-18, 2010 as a Category 4 (222 kph) while heading and approaching towards the coast of Southern Cagayan-Isabela area.

POSSIBLE AFFECTED AREA IN THE PHILIPPINES

This update is issued in order to identify the possible affected areas once the system will become a threat to any parts of the country.

Chances of Happening: Remains High (85%-100%)

• Cagayan
• Isabela
• Kalinga Apayao
• Aurora
• Batanes

Chances of Happening: High (75%-95%)

• Abra
• Mountain
• Benguet
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• Polilio Island
• Quirino
• La Union

Chances of Happening: Medium-High (65%-85%)

• Pangasinan
• Zambales
• Nueva Ecija
• other parts of Central Luzon
  
• other parts of Northern Bicol region

Chances of Happening: Moderate-Medium Chances (35%-55%)

• more parts of Southern Luzon including Metro Manila
  

* More places might be raise as this might become a typhoon in the next coming days.

Tropical Disturbance 91W

• 12.0N 132.0E
• 583.38 km. North-Northwest of Palau
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 37 kph
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Strong Tropical Disturbance
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1008 MB

* There is a medium chances that this disturbance will be absorbed by the Tropical Storm Megi.

Tropical Depression 15W now develop...91W trying to consolidates more strength

Tropical Depression 15W

• International Name: Pre-Megi
• Philipppine Name: Pre-Juan
• 11.4N 140.8E
• 277.8 km. West-Southwesto f Guam
• currently moving west-southwestward @ 13 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 46 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 65 kph
  
• mimimum sea level pressure: 1006 MB
  
• maximum sea wave height: 8 feet
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression 15W is expected to consolidates more strength today reaching Tropical Storm strength with a maximum sustained winds of 65 kph. It shall move WNW-NW direction within the next 2-3 days. It shall maintain it's Tropical Storm strength until 48 hours and rapidly becoming a Category 1 system with a maximum sustained winds of more than 120 kph. It shall maintain it's strength in the next 24 hours while changing it's course to NW-Westward direction becoming a Category 2 system ( 158 kph) heading towards Extreme Northern Luzon.

* Entering landfall area of the said system is possible next week (October 19-20, 2010) along the coast of Southern Cagayan-Northern Isabela area.

Tropical Disturbance 91W

• 11.6N 134E
• 481.52 km. North of Palau
• maximum sustained winds:19 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 28 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1010 MB
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance

As of this moment, the potential for the development of a significant Tropical Cyclone remains medium high (55%-75%) as this system is trying to consolidates more strength.

Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible within the next 24-48 hours as Tropical Disturbance 90W gains more strength..91W has slightly organized

Tropical Cyclone Weather Outlook

Global numerical weather guidance model such as ECMWF is having a hard time to forecasts the next Tropical Cyclone in the Western Pacific.

But based on the latest bulletin issued, Tropical Cyclone Formation might be possible along the side of Eastern Luzon or Northwest of Guam on October 15, Friday. The latest system that might be the next Tropical Cyclone is Tropical Disturbance 90W since it is consolidating more strength unlike from 91W. The possible tendency would be, it will be absorbed by this strong circulation (90W) since as of this moment, any time from 24-48 hours Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible. If this would be the case, the system is expected to move WNW-NW direction on October 16-17, 2010 heading eastern coast of Northern Luzon. It shall be on the coast of Southern Cagayan-Northern Isabela area on October 18, Monday and might transverse the extreme Northern Luzon and forecasts to exit Ilocos Norte area on October 19, Tuesday as a Minimal-Strong Tropical Storm. It is anticipated to be on Northern South China Sea on October 20, Wenesday as it is expected to gain more strength and develop in to a Category 1-2 heading Southern China (Hong Kong area-Hainan Province:50:50 chances) until October 21, Thursday.

*This update is prior to change if certain new development happens.

Watch out for further updates as this will be closely monitored for development in the coming days. But here are the latest weather tropical disturbance update:

Tropical Disturbance 91W

• 11.6N 134E
• 481.52 km. North of Palau
• the system has slightly organized for the past 6 hours
  
• maximum sustained winds: 19 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 28 kph
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1010 MB

* As of this moment, the potential for the development of a significant Tropical Cyclone Formation remains poor (45%-65%) based also on it's current and favorable environment for development.

Tropical Disturbance 90W

• 12.0N 142.8E
• 296.32 km. Southwest of Guam
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 37 kph
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1007 MB

* As of this moment, the potential for the development of a significant Tropical Cyclone Formation has already been upgraded to fair (65%-85%). It means that intensification is possible as it was slightly consolidating more strength as the latest satellite imagery depicts a low level circulation center (LLCC) with an increased deep convection near the center of the system.

Tropical Disturbance 99W reorganizing off the Philippine Sea

Tropical Disturbance 99W

• 11.4N 129.6E
• reorganized off the Philippine Sea
  
• East of Surigao del Norte
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 37 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 1010 MB
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance

Based on the latest weather bulletin issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency, Tropical Disturbance 99W is currently moving northwest @ 19 kph (10 knots) heading Eastern Visayas with a minimum sea level pressure of 1008 MB.

Intensification within the next 6-12 hours as this system is trying to consolidate more strength. Watch out for further information regarding about this developing disturbance.

Weather Outlook:
Possible moderate to heavy rains ( more than 50%)

• Western Visayas
• Central Visayas
• Eastern Visayas
• Northern Mindanao
  

Tropical Disturbance 92W regains more strength....now heading towards Central Vietnam

Tropical Disturbance 92W (ITOP24)

• 12.4N 116.8E
• 509.3 km. West-Southwest of Manila, Philippines
• currently moving west-northwestward @ 19 kph
  
• maximum sustained winds: 19 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 28 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1005 MB
  
• heading towards Central Vietnam

* The status of Tropical Disturbance 92W has already been raised to fair which means anytime, within the next 24-48 hours, there is a possibility that it might become the next Tropical Cyclone in the Western Pacific. It is also because of the good outflow aloft and high sea surface temperatures.
*Possible Intensification will range from Minimal Depression-Minimal Tropical Storm based also on it's current environment and location tracking West-WestNorthwestward direction.