Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible within the next 24-48 hours as Tropical Disturbance 90W gains more strength..91W has slightly organized

Tropical Cyclone Weather Outlook

Global numerical weather guidance model such as ECMWF is having a hard time to forecasts the next Tropical Cyclone in the Western Pacific.

But based on the latest bulletin issued, Tropical Cyclone Formation might be possible along the side of Eastern Luzon or Northwest of Guam on October 15, Friday. The latest system that might be the next Tropical Cyclone is Tropical Disturbance 90W since it is consolidating more strength unlike from 91W. The possible tendency would be, it will be absorbed by this strong circulation (90W) since as of this moment, any time from 24-48 hours Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible. If this would be the case, the system is expected to move WNW-NW direction on October 16-17, 2010 heading eastern coast of Northern Luzon. It shall be on the coast of Southern Cagayan-Northern Isabela area on October 18, Monday and might transverse the extreme Northern Luzon and forecasts to exit Ilocos Norte area on October 19, Tuesday as a Minimal-Strong Tropical Storm. It is anticipated to be on Northern South China Sea on October 20, Wenesday as it is expected to gain more strength and develop in to a Category 1-2 heading Southern China (Hong Kong area-Hainan Province:50:50 chances) until October 21, Thursday.

*This update is prior to change if certain new development happens.

Watch out for further updates as this will be closely monitored for development in the coming days. But here are the latest weather tropical disturbance update:

Tropical Disturbance 91W

• 11.6N 134E
• 481.52 km. North of Palau
• the system has slightly organized for the past 6 hours
  
• maximum sustained winds: 19 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 28 kph
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1010 MB

* As of this moment, the potential for the development of a significant Tropical Cyclone Formation remains poor (45%-65%) based also on it's current and favorable environment for development.

Tropical Disturbance 90W

• 12.0N 142.8E
• 296.32 km. Southwest of Guam
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 37 kph
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1007 MB

* As of this moment, the potential for the development of a significant Tropical Cyclone Formation has already been upgraded to fair (65%-85%). It means that intensification is possible as it was slightly consolidating more strength as the latest satellite imagery depicts a low level circulation center (LLCC) with an increased deep convection near the center of the system.