Tropical Storm Chaba rapidly gaining more strength as it moves toward the Okinawa area

Tropical Storm Chaba (Katring/16W)

As of 12 p.m. PST, October 25, 2010

• 17.2N 130.6E
• 1092.68 km. South-Southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan
• currently moving northwestward @ 11 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 83 kph
• gustiness winds: 102 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 992 MB
• maximum sea wave height: 17 feet
• heading towards Okinawa, Japan area
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm

Latest satellite imagery depicts that Tropical Storm Chaba  has improved it's deep convection banding for the past 6 hours along the southern and western periphery of the low level circulation center (LLCC). Numerical weather guidance models support the intensification of this system within the next 2-3 days. On October 26. it shall anticipated to move NW-Northward @ 24 kph as a Typhoon (Category 1) with a maximum sustained winds of 130 kph. It shall resume it's  N-NNE track as it moves toward the Okinawa, Japan area on Thursday as a Typhoon (Category 2) with a maximum sustained winds of 158 kph/167 kph. It shall continue tracking it's NE direction as Category 1 system after passing Okinawa area late Saturday morning.

Precautionary measures must be properly implemented along the projected area.

Tropical Depression barely moving Southwest @ 09 kph towards the Central Philippine Sea

Tropical Depression 16W (Katring) 

 As of 6 a.m. PST, October 24, 2010

• 15.4N 132.8E
• 1333.44 km. South-Southeast of Okinawa, Japan
• currently moving westward @ 09 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 56 kph
• gustiness winds: 74 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 1004 MB
• maximum sea wave height: 13 feet
• heading towards Philippine Sea
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression 16W continues to consolidate more strength as more numerical guidance models support the possible intensification of Tropical Depression 16W  in to a Tropical Storm within the next 12 hours (maximum sustained winds: 65 kph). It is anticipated to resume it's track beginning tomorrow in NW-WNW direction as a Tropical Storm and forecasts to accelerate on Tuesday at the speed of 24 kph with the possible sustained winds of  74 kph/93 kph/111 kph as it moves toward N-NNE heading Okinawa area on Thursday.

Typhoon Megi now on it's second lanfall towards Southeastern China..TD 16W on it's way to Philippine Sea..TD 17W trying to survives

Typhoon Megi (Juan/15W)

 As of 7 a.m. PST, October 23, 2010

• 23.7N 118.1E
  
• 425.96 km. East-Northeast of Hong Kong
• currently moving northward @ 11 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 130 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 85 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 970 MB
  
• maximum sea wave height: 21 feet
  
• heading towards Southeastern China
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1

Typhoon Megi slowly decreasing it's strength as it is forecasts to make it's second landfall this afternoon. The main reason of weakening of this system is that it is tracking under the influence of moderate vertical wind shear and increased subsidence. Based on the latest satellite imagery , the central convection has shallowed and contracted towards the center and the large eye is completely cloud filled. Typhoon Megi is expected to dissipate within 12-18 hours once this sytem will make it's second landfall today.

Precautionary measures must be properly implemented along the affected area while Western Taiwan and Southeastern China are alerted against storm surge.

Cyclone updates regarding about Tropical Depression 16W and Tropical Depression 17W is found on the next page located above.

Tropical Depression 17W

Latest weather update will be issue around 8-10 a.m. PST, October 23, 2010

Typhoon Megi now heading towards Southeastern China..Tropical Depression 16W gains more strength while 17W now a Tropical Depression

Typhoon Megi (Juan/15W)

• 20.7N 118.0E
• 435.22 km. East-Southeast of Hong Kong
• currently moving north-northeastward @ 7 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 167 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 204 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 945 MB
  
• maximum sea wave height: 34 feet
  
• heading towards Southeastern China
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2

Typhoon Megi is expected to decrease it's strength as it becomes as a Category 1 within the next 12 hours with a maximum sustained winds of 130 kph. It is anticipated to move faster at 24 kph as it approaches the coast of Southeastern China beginning early tomorrow morning o it's second landfall as a Tropical Storm with the maximum sustained winds of 102 kph. It shall continue to move over the Zhangzhou Province where complete dissipation process is possible on Sunday.

Tropical Depression 16W

• 17.3N 139.4E
• 842.66 km. South of Iwo To, Japan
• currently moving westward @ 19 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 46 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 65 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1002 MB
  
• maximum sea wave height: 10 feet
  
• heading towards Philippine Sea
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression 16W has consolidated strength for the past 6 hours as it moves toward westward. Latest satellite imagery depicts that Tropical Depression 16W is moving under the steering influence of the low-level subtropical ridged found to the north of the system. That is why, Tropical Depression 16W is expected to move westward within the next 72 hours and resume it's main track towards WNW on October 25.

PAGASA also reported that this system might enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday. Global numerical weather agency's such as ECMWF forecasts to move in W-WNW direction and did not run this system to affect the country but instead towards Okinawa, Japan area.

Tropical Depression 17W

• 21.0N 155.7E
• 1,444.56 km. Northeast of Hagatna, Guam
• currently moving west-northwestward @ 17 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 56 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 74 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1006 MB
  
• maximum sea wave height: 10 feet
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression 17W is expected to move in WNW direction and forecasts not to intensify signicantly within the next 24-48 hours. Unfavorable environmental factors such as upper level divergence, easterly vertical wind shear and the drier air that that moves toward in the center coming from the southeast region prevents the possible intensification. Complete dissipation process is possible within the next 48 hours.

Typhoon Megi weaken it's strength as it moves toward Southeastern China..95W now a Tropical Depression...while 98W consolidates more strength

As of 7 a.m. PST October 21, 2010


Typhoon Megi (Juan/15W)

• 19.1N 117.5E
• 509.3 km. Southeast of Hong Kong, China
• currently moving north-northeastward @ 09 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 185 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 232 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 945 MB
  
• maximum sea wave height: 38 feet
  
• heading towards Southeastern China
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
  

Typhoon Megi has gradually weaken it's strength over the past 6 hours however the latest IR imagery depicts an intense system with a banding eye and most of the convective band is found over the northwestern quadrant located over the South China Sea. Typhoon Megi is expected to decreasing it's strength as it moves to unfavorable environment and forecasts to move North-Northeastward direction in the 24-36 hours and resume it's track on October 22 as a Category 1 system (139 kph) as it approaches the coast of Southeastern China near Zhangzhou Province.

Proper precautionary measures must be implemented along the affected area. Strong storm surge is possible along the Northwestern seaboard coast of Luzon, Batanes and Western Taiwan is expected to prevail starting today as it moves to North-Northeastward direction.

Tropical Depression 95W (Pre-16W)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center has already issued Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert as Tropical Disturbance 95W rapidly gaining more strength for the past 12 hours.

• 16.3N 146.7E
• 148.16 km. Northeast of Saipan
• currently moving west-northwestward @ 22 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 37 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1006 MB

While here is the latest weather bulletin from the Japan Meteorological Agency for this newly develop cyclone:

• 16.1N 144.8E
• located over the Marianas
• currently moving westward @ 17 kph
• maximum winds near the center: 56 kph
• DVORAK Intensity: Strong Tropical Depression
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1004 MB
• forecast maximum winds near the center for the next 24 hours: 65 kph

PAGASA has already raised this system as a Tropical Depression and is anticipated to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday. This system will be closely monitored por possible intensification.

Tropical Disturbance 98W

• 17.6N 162.0E
• 1092.68 km. Northwest of Kwajalein
• maximum sustained winds: 22 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 33 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1006 MB
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance

* Japan Meteorological Agency has already raised this active system as a Tropical Depression. Here is the latest weather update by this agency:

• 17.0N 161.0E
• moving West-Northwestward @ 19 kph
  

Typhoon Megi barely moving as it moves toward Southeastern China...95W now a threat as TC formation within the next 24-48 hours

Typhoon Megi (Juan/15W)

• 17.2N 117.3E
• 648.2 km. South-Southeast of Hong Kong, China
• currently moving northwestward @ 6 kph
• heading towards Southeastern China
  
• maximum sustained winds: 213 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 259 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 945
  
• maximum sea wave height: 36 feet
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
  

Typhoon Megi has rapidly gaining more strength for the past 6 hours and becomes as a Category 4 system (213 kph). Typhoon Megi is expected to move North-Northwestward direction within the next 2 days heading Southeastern China as it nears to Super Typhoon tomorrow approaching the east coast of Hong Kong (near Guandong Province late Friday morning)

Tropical Disturbance 95W

• 16.3N 146.7E
• 148.16 km. Northeast of Saipan
• currently moving westward @ 22kph
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 37 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 1006 MB
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance

As of this moment, the potential for the development of a significant Tropical Cyclone Formation within the next 24-48 hours has already been raised to fair....65%-85% of becoming the next TC in the Western Pacific. This is the latest weather update also issued by the PAGASA based on the report of GMA News that this might become the next TC and affects the country early next week.

More updates once this system will fully-blown to an active Tropical Cyclone in the next coming days.

Typhoon Megi now entered PAR, rapidly intensification within the next 24 hours is expected as it moves toward Northen Luzon

Typhoon Megi (Juan/15W)

• 17.0N 133.7E
• 1444.56 km. East of Manila
• currently moving northwestward @ 28 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 176 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 213 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 952 MB
  
• maximum sea wave height: 27 feet
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
  
• heading towards Philippine Sea

Typhoon Megi rapidly gaining more strength as it moves WNW within the next 12 hours and becoming a Category 3 system (195 kph). It shall maintain it's present track within the next 24 hours as a Category 4 system (222 kph-241 kph) while resuming it's track to westward direction starting on October 17, Sunday. Latest numerical weather guidance models support the possible tracking of WSW direction tomorrow as a Super Typhoon/Category 4 system with a maximum sustaine winds of 250 kph and gustiness winds of 306 kph while approaching the coast of Extreme Northern Luzon specifically Northern Cagayan early evening of Monday. It is anticipated to transverse the Northern Luzon (Cagayan-Apayao area on Tuesday while moving 24 kph as a Category 1 system (148 kph) and is expected to be over the coast of ESE of Laoag, Ilocos Norte. Typhoon Megi is expected to lose it's strength due to mountaineous terrain where the system is crossing. It shall be over the South China Sea on October 19, while re-organizing and consolidating more strength with a project maximum sustained winds of 158 kph while heading WNW-NW ward in the direction of Hainan Island, China and rapidly gaining more strength.

As of this moment, proper precautionary measures must be implemented along the residents and visitors along Luzon especially Northern and Eastern coastline of Luzon down to Central Luzon.

Typhoon Megi rapidly gaining more strength as it moves toward the Philippine Area of Responsibility tonight

Typhoon Megi (15W)

• 13.5N 137.7E
• 324.1 km. North of Yap
• currently moving west-northwestward @ 11 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 148 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 185 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure:
• maximum sea wave height: 22 feet
  
• heading towards Philippine Sea
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1

Typhoon Megi has rapidly undergone intensification during the past six hours and is expected to consolidates more strength. Numerical weather guidance model supports the possible intensification within the next 12 hours as a Category 2 system (167 kph>) while moving in WNW direction heading the Central Philippine Sea. It shall maintain it's track while accelerating moving 24 kph starting tomorrow October 16 as a Super Typhoon (Category 4) packing the maximum sustained winds of 213 kph. It shall resume it's track to westward direction while maintaining it's strength as it approaches the coasts of Southern Cagayan-Isabela-Northern Aurora area peaking the maximum strength of 232 kph. It is anticipated to transverse the Extreme Central Northern Luzon (Kalinga-Benguet area) on October 18 and shall be on the coast of La Union-Lingayen area on October 19 as a Typhoon with the strength of 158 kph.

Tropical Disturbance 91W

• 10.5N 131.2E
• 5004.04 km. Northwest of Palau
• maximum sustained winds: 22 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 33 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 1007 MB
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance

* Possible absorption of this disturbance as this system will be merge to the strong system north of it, Typhoon Megi.

Tropical Storm Megi rapidly gaining more strength as this will forecasts to absorb 91W and become Category 1 system today

Tropical Storm Megi (15W)

• 11.6N 140.7E
• 361.41 km. Northeast of Yap
• currently moving westward @ 7 kph
  
• maximum sustained winds:93 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 121 kph
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Strong Tropical Storm
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1002 MB
  
• maximum sea wave height: 12 feet
  
• heading towards Northern Caroline Islands-Philippine Sea

Tropical Storm Megi (15W) is expected to become as one of the strongest cyclone in the Western Pacific region based on the latest intensity and model issued by the different weather websites and agency's. One factor of the intensification is the possible absorption of TS Megi to the other disturbance located in the Philippine Sea (Tropical Disturbance 91W). The following below are the extended forecasts for Tropical Disturbance 91W:

Tropical Storm Megi is expected to become as a Category 1 this afternoon with a maximum sustained winds of 120 kph-139 kph while moving WNW-NW direction heading the Northern Caroline area. It shall maintain it's WNW to NW direction as it forecasts to move 24 kph on October15-16, 2010 as a Category 3 system (195 kph-204 kph). It is anticipated to resume it's track to NW-Westward direction as a powerful super typhoon on October 17-18, 2010 as a Category 4 (222 kph) while heading and approaching towards the coast of Southern Cagayan-Isabela area.

POSSIBLE AFFECTED AREA IN THE PHILIPPINES

This update is issued in order to identify the possible affected areas once the system will become a threat to any parts of the country.

Chances of Happening: Remains High (85%-100%)

• Cagayan
• Isabela
• Kalinga Apayao
• Aurora
• Batanes

Chances of Happening: High (75%-95%)

• Abra
• Mountain
• Benguet
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• Polilio Island
• Quirino
• La Union

Chances of Happening: Medium-High (65%-85%)

• Pangasinan
• Zambales
• Nueva Ecija
• other parts of Central Luzon
  
• other parts of Northern Bicol region

Chances of Happening: Moderate-Medium Chances (35%-55%)

• more parts of Southern Luzon including Metro Manila
  

* More places might be raise as this might become a typhoon in the next coming days.

Tropical Disturbance 91W

• 12.0N 132.0E
• 583.38 km. North-Northwest of Palau
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 37 kph
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Strong Tropical Disturbance
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1008 MB

* There is a medium chances that this disturbance will be absorbed by the Tropical Storm Megi.

Tropical Depression 15W now develop...91W trying to consolidates more strength

Tropical Depression 15W

• International Name: Pre-Megi
• Philipppine Name: Pre-Juan
• 11.4N 140.8E
• 277.8 km. West-Southwesto f Guam
• currently moving west-southwestward @ 13 kph
• maximum sustained winds: 46 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 65 kph
  
• mimimum sea level pressure: 1006 MB
  
• maximum sea wave height: 8 feet
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression 15W is expected to consolidates more strength today reaching Tropical Storm strength with a maximum sustained winds of 65 kph. It shall move WNW-NW direction within the next 2-3 days. It shall maintain it's Tropical Storm strength until 48 hours and rapidly becoming a Category 1 system with a maximum sustained winds of more than 120 kph. It shall maintain it's strength in the next 24 hours while changing it's course to NW-Westward direction becoming a Category 2 system ( 158 kph) heading towards Extreme Northern Luzon.

* Entering landfall area of the said system is possible next week (October 19-20, 2010) along the coast of Southern Cagayan-Northern Isabela area.

Tropical Disturbance 91W

• 11.6N 134E
• 481.52 km. North of Palau
• maximum sustained winds:19 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 28 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1010 MB
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance

As of this moment, the potential for the development of a significant Tropical Cyclone remains medium high (55%-75%) as this system is trying to consolidates more strength.

Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible within the next 24-48 hours as Tropical Disturbance 90W gains more strength..91W has slightly organized

Tropical Cyclone Weather Outlook

Global numerical weather guidance model such as ECMWF is having a hard time to forecasts the next Tropical Cyclone in the Western Pacific.

But based on the latest bulletin issued, Tropical Cyclone Formation might be possible along the side of Eastern Luzon or Northwest of Guam on October 15, Friday. The latest system that might be the next Tropical Cyclone is Tropical Disturbance 90W since it is consolidating more strength unlike from 91W. The possible tendency would be, it will be absorbed by this strong circulation (90W) since as of this moment, any time from 24-48 hours Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible. If this would be the case, the system is expected to move WNW-NW direction on October 16-17, 2010 heading eastern coast of Northern Luzon. It shall be on the coast of Southern Cagayan-Northern Isabela area on October 18, Monday and might transverse the extreme Northern Luzon and forecasts to exit Ilocos Norte area on October 19, Tuesday as a Minimal-Strong Tropical Storm. It is anticipated to be on Northern South China Sea on October 20, Wenesday as it is expected to gain more strength and develop in to a Category 1-2 heading Southern China (Hong Kong area-Hainan Province:50:50 chances) until October 21, Thursday.

*This update is prior to change if certain new development happens.

Watch out for further updates as this will be closely monitored for development in the coming days. But here are the latest weather tropical disturbance update:

Tropical Disturbance 91W

• 11.6N 134E
• 481.52 km. North of Palau
• the system has slightly organized for the past 6 hours
  
• maximum sustained winds: 19 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 28 kph
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1010 MB

* As of this moment, the potential for the development of a significant Tropical Cyclone Formation remains poor (45%-65%) based also on it's current and favorable environment for development.

Tropical Disturbance 90W

• 12.0N 142.8E
• 296.32 km. Southwest of Guam
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 37 kph
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1007 MB

* As of this moment, the potential for the development of a significant Tropical Cyclone Formation has already been upgraded to fair (65%-85%). It means that intensification is possible as it was slightly consolidating more strength as the latest satellite imagery depicts a low level circulation center (LLCC) with an increased deep convection near the center of the system.

Tropical Disturbance 99W reorganizing off the Philippine Sea

Tropical Disturbance 99W

• 11.4N 129.6E
• reorganized off the Philippine Sea
  
• East of Surigao del Norte
• maximum sustained winds: 28 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 37 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 1010 MB
  
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance

Based on the latest weather bulletin issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency, Tropical Disturbance 99W is currently moving northwest @ 19 kph (10 knots) heading Eastern Visayas with a minimum sea level pressure of 1008 MB.

Intensification within the next 6-12 hours as this system is trying to consolidate more strength. Watch out for further information regarding about this developing disturbance.

Weather Outlook:
Possible moderate to heavy rains ( more than 50%)

• Western Visayas
• Central Visayas
• Eastern Visayas
• Northern Mindanao
  

Tropical Disturbance 92W regains more strength....now heading towards Central Vietnam

Tropical Disturbance 92W (ITOP24)

• 12.4N 116.8E
• 509.3 km. West-Southwest of Manila, Philippines
• currently moving west-northwestward @ 19 kph
  
• maximum sustained winds: 19 kph
  
• gustiness winds: 28 kph
  
• minimum sea level pressure: 1005 MB
  
• heading towards Central Vietnam

* The status of Tropical Disturbance 92W has already been raised to fair which means anytime, within the next 24-48 hours, there is a possibility that it might become the next Tropical Cyclone in the Western Pacific. It is also because of the good outflow aloft and high sea surface temperatures.
*Possible Intensification will range from Minimal Depression-Minimal Tropical Storm based also on it's current environment and location tracking West-WestNorthwestward direction.