Tropical Disturbance 96w might become Tropical Depression within the next the 12-24 hours

As of 12 a.m
Warning Information #1
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Tropical Disturbance 96W/Pre-05W

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Other Agency's:

+ JTWC - 19 kph-29 kph(10-15 knots)
+ Navy Tropical Cyclone Page -37 kph (20 knots)
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Location:19.5N 126.2E
Distance:270 Km EastSouthEast of Basco, Batanes
Movement:moving west @ 22 kph
Maximum Sustained winds:37 kph
Gustiness Winds:46 kph
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale:Tropical Disturbance
Dvorak Description Scale for the next 12 hrs: Stage 1 (TCFA)
Minimum Sea Level Pressure:1006 MB
Projected Path:Batanes-Taiwan area
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Cyclone Forecasts Analysis and Observation:

Tropical Disturbance 96w is expected to organize within the next 6-12 hours as it moves toward an area of favorable upper level divergence and weak vertical wind shear. Based on its latest current movement, it is expected to pass over Batanes and Taiwan area early or late tomorrow morning peaking the wind speed of Tropical Depression strength. The said disturbance is expected to pull and enhance the Southwest Monsoon that almost affecting all parts of the country. The latest satellite imagery shows 96w bringing moderate to heavy rains and thunderstorms.

*Watch out for the latest weather updates and details as this this system will closely monitored for further development.

ECMWF forecasts a Tropical Disturbance transversing Northern Visayas starting tomorrow

European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) -a well- known weather agency has forecasts a developing Tropical Disurbance. The 2-3 long range day forecasts is expected to move in Northern part in Western Visayas on Saturday and move a little bit Southwest direction towards South China on Sunday (expected to be near Northwest of Palawan. This forecast disturbance is expected to bring moderate to heavy rainfall with thunderstorms as it is embedded along the active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. This wil laffect the Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao as this will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat).

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential for 96w is now 45%-65%...ITCZ affecting Visayas and Mindanao

As of 8 p.m
Information #1
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Tropical Disturbance 96W

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Other Agency's:

+Navy Tropical Cyclone Page-28 kph
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Location:8.8N 134.7E
Distance:990 km East of Northern Mindanao
Movement:West
Maximum Sustained winds:28 kph
Gustiness Winds:37 kph
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale:Tropical Disturbance
Dvorak Description Scale:Stage 1 (Warning)
Minimum Sea Level Pressure:1006 MB
Projected Path: Philippine Sea

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Cyclone Analysis and Observation:

Tropical Disturbance 96w remains embedded along the active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone that affects Visayas and Mindanao.It is expected to move as Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts this system not moving/stationary for the past 6 hours. More weather bulletin will be issued once this system will develop in to an active that could affect the country.

NOAA forecasts Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible along the Western North Pacific region

There is a probability that Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible along the side near Eastern Visayas, Eastern Luzon and South China Sea based on the latest NOAA weather guidance model.The areas of weak vertical wind shear increase the threat of Tropical Disturbance development along the said area. The NOAA forecasts also above average rainfall including here in the Philippines. The enhanced favor phase of the MJO and developing La Niña are some of the factors that could enhance above rainfall not only here in our country but also in India and nearby country of Southeast Asia region. While here in the Philippines, Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone remains the dominant weather disturbance affecting the whole country.

Tropical Disturbance 91W consolidating more strength near Southeast Vietnam.....TCF chances is at 60-70% ( fair)

Tropical Disturbance 91w

• Strong Low Pressure Area
• 10.9N 112.8E
• moving West @ 17 kph
  
• 360 NM East of Ho Chi Minh City, Southern Vietnam
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 22 kph
• Gustiness Winds: 32 kph
• Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007 MB
• Projected Path: towards Southern Vietnam

Joint-Typhoon Warning Center Discussion:

 THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
112.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.8E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. A 241411Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT A PORTION OF THE
NARROW TROUGH HAS FORMED INTO A WEAK, YET SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241815Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
CURVED INFLOW AND WEAK BANDING WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
STILL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, SIGNALING THE PRESENCE OF EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS HAS
STARTED TO RELAX SOME OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND IS DOWN TO 15-25
KNOTS. UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DA NANG AND HO CHI MINH CITY,
VIETNAM SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY WINDS (5-30 KNOTS) THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM IS FORMING AND STARTING TO
DRIFT WESTWARD, BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR HAVE DECREASED.
FINALLY, UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS ALSO INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK LLCC AND DECREASING VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

Typhoon Chanthu now on its second landfall....heavy rainfalls expected along the affected area

Typhoon Chanthu (04W)

• 21.5N 100.4E
• moving west-northwestward @ 20 kph
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 139 kph
• Gustiness Winds: 167 kph
• Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974 mb
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
• Projected Path: Guangxi Province

Forecast Analysis:
12 hours 22.4N 108.8E 93 kph-120 kph Tropical Storm
24 hours 23.1N 107.5E 56 kph-56 kph Tropical Depression
36 hours 23.8N 106.1E 37 kph-56 kph Tropical Depression

Typhoon Chanthu has made its second landfall late this afternoon at the
province of Wuchuan, China peaking the maximum sustained winds of
120 kph (Category 1). It is expected to weak and become Tropical Storm
within the next 12 hours while moving inland China. It is anticipated
also to dissipate tomorrow afternoon having the strength of Tropical
Depression.Heavy rainfalls is started to fall and thunderstorms expected
along the affected area.

TropicalStorm Chanchu remains threatening Wstern Guandong

Tropical Storm Chanchu

• 18.9N 112.8E
• Distance: 215 nm South-Southwest of Hong Kong
• moving North-Northwestward @ 11 kph
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 83 kph
• Gustiness Winds: 102 kph
• Projected area: Hainan-Western Guandong
• Maximum Significant Wave Height: 16 feet
• Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980 mb
• Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Strong Tropical Storm

Forecast Analysis:

12 hours 20.0N 111.9E 93 kph-120 kph Tropical Storm
24 hours 21.1N 111.0E 102 kph-130 kph Strong Tropical Storm
36 hours 22.2N 109.9E 74 kph-93 kph Minimal Tropical Storm
48 hours 23.0N 108.8E 46 kph-65 kph Tropical Depression
72 hours 23.7N 107.1E 28 kph-46 kph Dissipating/LPA