Strong LPA (93W) consolidates more strength as TCFA is possible within the next 12-24 hours..94W developed

Tropical Disturbance 93W

• 11.1N 128.3E
• 380 km. ESE of Borongan City, Samar
• maximum winds: 28 kph
• gustiness winds: 37 kph
• currently moving NW at 15 kph
• heading towards Samar-Bicol region area
• minimum sea level pressure: 1006 mb

Latest satellite imagery, shows disorganized deep convection flaring primarily over the western semi-circle  of a weak low-level circulation near the center (LLCC). Because of this, scattered to widespread rains associated with strong winds  continues to affect Visayas region, Northeastern Mindanao and Bicol region.

Numerical weather guidance models such as the ECMWF tracks this disturbance to move NW-WNW direction heading Bicol region-Eastern Luzon area tomorrow. It is anticipated to move closer to Catanduanes area this coming Saturday and on Sunday, near the coast of Eastern Luzon. Intensification and projected tracking area might change and possible formation of active system early next week  since this was the latest models issued by ECMWF and GFS.

Tropical Disturbance 94W

• 4.3N 144.0E
• maximum winds: 28 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 1010 mb

Tropical Disturbance 93W is now subject for TCFA

Tropical Disturbance 93W

• 9.4N 129.0E

• 335 ENE of Surigao City
• currently moving WNW @ 20 kph
• maximum winds: 40 kph
• gustiness winds: 55 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 1005 mb
• heading towards Leyte-Samar area

Tropical Disturbance 93W is expected to consolidates more strength as it become as a Tropical Depression within the next 6-12 hours. Joint Typhoon Warning Center has already issue for Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert early this day however country's weather bureau, PAGASA remains put the active system in to LPA. 

Latest numerical weather guidance models such as the ECMWF and GFS supports the possible intensification tracking the system WNW to NW direction heading Samar-Bicol region. This would be the very first tropical cyclone to affect the eastern part of the country. Possible affected areas as of now, includes Visayas, parts of Northeastern Mindanao and Bicol region. Because of this strong system, scattered to widespread winds with heavy thunderstorms are expected with the affected areas this weekend.

Cold Front affecting Mindanao....Moderate to heavy rains might be felt along the affected area

Stationary front (cold front) is the dominant weather disturbance affecting the Central and Southern Part of the country. Weather satellite depicts that moderate-severe heavy rains might be experienced with the affected area. 

ALERT # 3

Description: Heavy rains might be felt along the following area:

Possible rainfall: 30-35 mm/hr

* Northeastern Mindanao

ALERT# 2

Description: Moderate to heavy rains might might be felt along the following area:

Possible rainfall: 15-25 mm/hr

* Rest of Northern and Central Mindanao

* Bohol

* Siquijor

* Camiguin

* Leyte

* Cebu

* Southern Samar

ALERT # 1

Description: Light to Moderate rains to be felt along the affected area:

Possible rainfall: 2.5-5 mm/hr

* Negros Provinces

* Rests of Samar Prvinces

*Albay

Country's public weather agency, PAGASA has just issued it's Gale Warning # 3. This gale warning indicates that gale force winds associated with the surge of strong northeasterly winds (amihan). This strong to gale force wind is expected to affect the seaboards (rough to very rough) of Luzon and the Eastern sea board of Visayas.For more details, pls. visit the PAGASA's website.

Tropical Disturbance 94W moves toward Southern Vietnam..Tail-end of a Cold Front affecting Bicol Region

Based on the latest weather satellite imagery, Tail-end of a Cold Front affecting the Eastern Luzon and Bicol region. This region will experience mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rains. showers and thunderstorms. Northeast Monsoon remains the dominant  disturbance that  brings cold weather temperature in Extreme Northern Luzon

* Residents along Mount Bulusan are alerted from possible lahar flows as possible rains that might trigger landslide along the mountain slope.

While weak to moderate Easterlies Wave now heading towards Eastern Mindanao. Possible rainshowers with thunderstorms also are expected as it moves toward Northern Mindanao and Southern Visayas.

Tropical Disturbance 94W remains disorganized as it moves toward Southern Vietnam. Possible intensification within the next 12 hours is still at 15%-25% (low chances).

PAG-ASA made an excellent job in tracking Typhoon Megi in the Philippines

PAG-ASA made a better job when they forecasts the expected projected landfall, bulletins and models during Tropical Cyclone Megi lashes Northern Luzon. Here are the total votes casted after the 10 days. More visitors rather to gave a positive score for PAG-ASA since they issued early warnings and bulletins before Typhoon Megi devastated Northern part of the country.

Government needs to provide a budget for this agency in order to have world-class facilities and instruments in order to provide an excellent weather forecasting in the science of meteorology.

We do hope that this better performance will improves not only today but in the near future.