Tropical Storm SONGDA rapidly intensifying over the Philippine Sea...might become a Category 1 Typhoon this evening

Tropical Storm SONGDA (Chedeng/04W)

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as of 1 P.M PST 05/23/2011
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• 11.1N 133.6E
• 371.2 km. North-Northwest of Palau
• currently moving WNW-ward @ 17 kph
• heading towards the Philippine Sea
• maximum sustained winds: 111 kph
• gustiness winds: 139 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 985 mb
• maximum significant wave height: 21 feet

Tropical Storm Songda is expected to continue intensifying within the next 12 hours as it moves to the warm Philippine Sea, upgraded as a Category 1 Typhoon this evening. It is anticipated to maintained it's WNW track due of course to its favorable conditions. Based on the lasted numerical weather guidance models, Songda is not expected to make a landfall in any parts of Northern Luzon as it forecasts to re-curve heading Eastern coast of Taiwan-Southern Japan area.

Tropical Storm Songda rapidly gaining more strength as it moves toward the Philippine Sea

Tropical Storm SONGDA (Pre-Chedeng/04W)

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           as of 1 P.M PST 05/22/2011
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• 9.9N 136.8E
• 148.48 km. West-Northwest of Yap
• barely moving WNW @ 09 kph
• heading towards the Philippine Sea
• maximum sustained winds: 83 kph
• gustiness winds: 102 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 994 mb
• maximum significant wave height: 15 feet

Tropical Storm Songda is expected to gather more strength as it enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility later this evening or early Monday morning.  It is forecast to intensify under favorable conditions while on the Philippine Sea maintaining it's current WNW-ward track heading the Eastern coast of Eastern Luzon on Thursday afternoon.

Tropical Storm 04W rapidly instensify as it moves toward Yap-Ulithi Island

Tropical Storm 04W

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12 P.M PST 05/21/2011

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• 8.9N 138.5E
• 83.925 km. Southeast of Yap
• barely moving westward @ 09 kph
• heading toward Ulithi-Yap Island
• maximum sustained wind: 65 kph
• gustiness winds: 83 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 998 mb
• maximum significant wave height: 12 feet

Tropical Depression 04W just upgraded to Tropical Storm as it rapidly intensify for the past 6 hours. Numerical weather guidance models  support the intensification as it moves toward the Philippine Sea as a minimal Typhoon within the next 2-3 days due to it's favorable warm sea surface temperatures. 

Tropical Depression 04W consolidates more strengths for the past 6 hours near Yap Island

Tropical Depression 04W (98W)

•  8.3N 141.7E
• 438.275 km. East-Southeast of Yap
• barely  moving NW-ward @ 06 kph
• heading towards Philippine Sea
• maximum winds: 56 kph
• gustiness winds: 74 kph
• minimum sea level pressure:1006 mb
• maximum significant wave height: 10 feet

Based on the latest images, Tropical Depression 04W has rapidly consolidated strength for the past 6 hours as formative wrapped tighter in to the LLCC (Low Level Circulation Center). Numerical weather guidance models support the possible intensification because of the warm sea surface temperatures within the next 36-48  hours as it moves toward the Philippine Sea.

Tropical Storm Aere begins to move toward Eastern Luzon and as it re-organizes and slightly intensification is possible within the next 12 hours

Tropical Storm Aere (03W/Bebeng)

• 15.0N 123.2E
• 277.8 km. East of Metro Manila, Philippines
• currently moving northwestwad @ 15 kph
• maximum winds: 93 kph
• gustiness winds: 120 kph
• mimimum sea level pressure: 994 mb
• maximum sea wave height: 18 feet
• heading towards Isabela-Aurora area

Tropical Storm Aere is expected to intensify  within the next 12 hours as latest satellite imagery depicts deep central convection began to re-organize. Due to the favorable upper level conditions and warm  sea surface temperatures, intensification is possible. Tropical Storm Aere should continue to intensify slightly before making it's landfall near Isabela-Aurora area by early tomorrow morning . The system is forecast to begin weakening over the rugged mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon and due to increase vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment. Because of this also, TS Aere is expected to change it's directions heading Northward towards Okinawa Island, Japan and begins to interact with the mid-latitude westerlies.

While here are is the latest PSWS issued by PAGASA. Proper precautionary measures must be implemented against flash floods, mudslides, landslides and possible storm surge especially along the Eastern Coasts of Luzon facing the Pacific Ocean.

TROPICAL STORM AERE (03W/BEBENG)

as of 6 P.M PST 05/08/2011
PSWS #	Luzon	Visayas	Mindanao
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)	Isabela Quirino Aurora Nueva Ecija Northern Quezon Polillo Island Nueva Viscaya Camarines Norte	no affected areas	no affected areas
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)	Catanduanes Albay Burias Island Camarines Sur Southern Quezon Marinduque Batangas Laguna Cavite Rizal Bulacan Bataan Pampanga Tarlac Zambales Pangasinan La Union Benguet Ifugao Mt. Province Ilocos Sur Kalinga Cagayan Metro Manila	no affected areas	mo affect areas

Tropical Storm Aere consolidates more strength as it moves toward Isabela-Aurora area

Tropical Storm Aere (Bebeng/03W)

• 14.1N 123.7E
• 115 km. NNW of Virac, Catanduanes
• currently moving WNW-ward @ 13 kph
• maximum winds: 93 kph
• gustiness winds: 120 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 990 mb
• maximum sea wave height: 17 feet
• heading towards Isabela-Aurora area

Based on the latest weather update, Tropical Storm Aere (Bebeng) is expected to intensify within the next 12-24 hours as it moves NNW-NW-ward track towards Aurora-Isabela area. Numerical weather forecast model shows possible landfall along Isabela-Aurora early Monday morning with a maximum sustained winds of 110 kph. It shall transverse along extreme Northern Luzon the whole afternoon as this cause the possible losing of strength of this active system. It is expected to accelerates toward NE as a Minimal Tropical Storm Wednesday morning heading Okinawa Island, Japan.

Proper precautionary measures must be implemented against possible flash floods, mudslides, landslides and storm surge especially along those affected coasts facing the Pacific Ocean.

While here is the latest Public Storm Warning Signals issued by PAGASA as of

TROPICAL STORM AERE (BEBENG/03W)

as of 11 A.M. PST
PSWS #	Luzon	Visayas	Mindanao
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)	Catanduanes Camarines Norte Camarines Sur Northern Quezon Polillo island Aurora Nueva Ecija Nueva Viscaya Isabela	no affected areas	no affected areas
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)	Sorosogon Albay Southern Quezon Laguna Rizal Bulacan Pampanga Tarlac Pangasinan La Union Mt Province Kalinga Ifugao Southern Cagayan	Northern Samar	no affected area

Tropical Storm 03w (Bebing) gains more strength as it moves toward Bicol-Eastern Luzon area

Tropical Storm 03W (Bebeng)

• 12.8N 126.8E
• 200 km. East of Catarman, Northern Samar
• currently moving northwestward @ 15 kph
• maximum winds: 65 kph
• gustiness winds: 83 kph
• minimum sea level presure: 996 mb
• maximum sea wave height: 14 feet

Tropical Storm 03W consolidates more strength as it moves closer to Bicol region today. Numerical weather forecast models supports the possible intensification within the next 12-24 hours as it moves NW-WNW heading Eastern Luzon early this week. This system is expected to move closer near Catanduanes this Sunday morning with a maximum winds of 75 kph near the center. Due to its favorable condition also, intensification
is anticipated as it moves NW-ward within the next 24 hours heading toward Isabela-Cagayan area.While on Tuesday, the said disturbance will gradually losing it's strength while transversing the mountainous terrain in Northern Luzon.

Tropical Storm 03W's big circulation while gathering more strength with it's improved rainbands affecting Bicol region, Eastern Visayas, and Northeastern Mindanao including Southern Luzon.

Residents along the affected area must implement proper precautionary measures against landslides, flash floods and mudslides.

Tropical Disturbance 94W

• 1.3N 144.5E
• 1300 km. SE of Palau 
• maximum winds: 28 kph
• gustiness winds: 37 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 1010 mb

Strong LPA (93W) consolidates more strength as TCFA is possible within the next 12-24 hours..94W developed

Tropical Disturbance 93W

• 11.1N 128.3E
• 380 km. ESE of Borongan City, Samar
• maximum winds: 28 kph
• gustiness winds: 37 kph
• currently moving NW at 15 kph
• heading towards Samar-Bicol region area
• minimum sea level pressure: 1006 mb

Latest satellite imagery, shows disorganized deep convection flaring primarily over the western semi-circle  of a weak low-level circulation near the center (LLCC). Because of this, scattered to widespread rains associated with strong winds  continues to affect Visayas region, Northeastern Mindanao and Bicol region.

Numerical weather guidance models such as the ECMWF tracks this disturbance to move NW-WNW direction heading Bicol region-Eastern Luzon area tomorrow. It is anticipated to move closer to Catanduanes area this coming Saturday and on Sunday, near the coast of Eastern Luzon. Intensification and projected tracking area might change and possible formation of active system early next week  since this was the latest models issued by ECMWF and GFS.

Tropical Disturbance 94W

• 4.3N 144.0E
• maximum winds: 28 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 1010 mb

Tropical Disturbance 93W is now subject for TCFA

Tropical Disturbance 93W

• 9.4N 129.0E

• 335 ENE of Surigao City
• currently moving WNW @ 20 kph
• maximum winds: 40 kph
• gustiness winds: 55 kph
• minimum sea level pressure: 1005 mb
• heading towards Leyte-Samar area

Tropical Disturbance 93W is expected to consolidates more strength as it become as a Tropical Depression within the next 6-12 hours. Joint Typhoon Warning Center has already issue for Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert early this day however country's weather bureau, PAGASA remains put the active system in to LPA. 

Latest numerical weather guidance models such as the ECMWF and GFS supports the possible intensification tracking the system WNW to NW direction heading Samar-Bicol region. This would be the very first tropical cyclone to affect the eastern part of the country. Possible affected areas as of now, includes Visayas, parts of Northeastern Mindanao and Bicol region. Because of this strong system, scattered to widespread winds with heavy thunderstorms are expected with the affected areas this weekend.

Cold Front affecting Mindanao....Moderate to heavy rains might be felt along the affected area

Stationary front (cold front) is the dominant weather disturbance affecting the Central and Southern Part of the country. Weather satellite depicts that moderate-severe heavy rains might be experienced with the affected area. 

ALERT # 3

Description: Heavy rains might be felt along the following area:

Possible rainfall: 30-35 mm/hr

* Northeastern Mindanao

ALERT# 2

Description: Moderate to heavy rains might might be felt along the following area:

Possible rainfall: 15-25 mm/hr

* Rest of Northern and Central Mindanao

* Bohol

* Siquijor

* Camiguin

* Leyte

* Cebu

* Southern Samar

ALERT # 1

Description: Light to Moderate rains to be felt along the affected area:

Possible rainfall: 2.5-5 mm/hr

* Negros Provinces

* Rests of Samar Prvinces

*Albay

Country's public weather agency, PAGASA has just issued it's Gale Warning # 3. This gale warning indicates that gale force winds associated with the surge of strong northeasterly winds (amihan). This strong to gale force wind is expected to affect the seaboards (rough to very rough) of Luzon and the Eastern sea board of Visayas.For more details, pls. visit the PAGASA's website.